MRT was developed in sociology by Robert K. Merton in the late 1940s as a way of connecting high-level social theory with empirically observable patterns. As such it stands between high-level social theory (e.g. hermeneutics) and low-level general laws or principles.
Simulation modelling and analysis is the process of creating and experimenting with a computerised mathematical model (Chung, 2004) imitating the behaviour of eal-world processes or systems over time. Simulation modelling is specifically useful for policy makers and strategic management, gaining insight into general future developments.
Scenarios are narrative descriptions («stories») of potential futures that focus on relationships between events and decision points. They direct attention to driving forces, possible avenues of evolution and the span of contingencies that may be confronted. Thus they are particularly useful when many factors need to be considered and the degree of uncertainty about the future is high.